‘Sinners’: Oscars history or heartbreak?

Update March 19

A historic 16 nominations results in a record-breaking 12 losses

The 98th Academy Awards were supposed to be the final victory lap for the highest-grossing original film of the decade, but instead the evening turned into an example of how quickly the momentum of award season can change.

The “Spielberg Curse” is being renamed as the “Coogler Curse” after Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” emerged with just four victories after receiving 16 nominations. Coogler’s name will now embody the struggle films with enormous critical and commercial success face in realizing an Oscars sweep.

The “sweeper” this season turned out to be “One Battle After Another” winning a total of six awards, snatching a statistical upset early into the show for Best Casting. Once OBAA took their first trophy, for the academy’s debut Casting category, it didn’t slow down with Paul Thomas Anderson stepping on stage for a total of three separate wins.

However, the four trophies “Sinners” secured as predicted by prediction market platform Kalshi were monumental:

• Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan triumphed for his dual performance as twins Smoke and Stack.
• Best Cinematography: Autumn Durald Arkapaw became the first woman to ever win the category.
• Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler was recognized for his classic and yet modern script.
• Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson secured his predicted victory for the film’s unique gothic and southern soundtrack.

Ultimately, “Sinners” exits the season as the most decorated “loser” in Academy history. Despite the stats, its legacy as a cultural phenomenon and a $368 million success is unaffected by the night’s losses.

Original article 

With a remarkable 16 nominations, Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” heads into Oscars night with the most nods in Academy history. Under normal circumstances, this would guarantee a sweep. However, despite a $368 million box office and being dubbed the highest-grossing original film this decade, the betting markets and fierce competition tell a different story.

As celebrities begin to walk the red carpet, the industry is hit with a serious question: Will “Sinners” make history with a record number of wins, or will it meet the same fate as Steven Spielberg’s “The Color Purple.” Or worse, will it set a new record for the most snubs in a single night?

It is rare for a film to capture such attention and change what is expected from a typical blockbuster. Coogler’s standalone thriller has broken new ground in original storytelling, proving that audiences want more than just sequels and reboots. By blending two unique genres into one, a Jim Crow-era southern soul epic and a gothic vampire folk musical, Coogler presents a boldly different style that reflects his talent.

The predominantly Black cast brimming with talent is led by Michael B. Jordan — People magazine’s 2020 Sexiest Man Alive and a newly minted Best Actor frontrunner after his Actors Awards win — delivering a powerful dual performance as twins Smoke and Stack. This film goes beyond the label cinematic masterpiece and takes the title of modern classic with a suave noir that’s undeniable in many of Coogler’s previous works. It has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating critics.

The film’s IMDB boasts 313 wins to its 492 nominations, a staggering number. Such widespread acclaim makes its current awards path even more shocking.

Spielberg’s 1986 version of “The Color Purple” serves as a warning for this year’s Academy Awards. It holds the record for most losses in a night, with 11 nominations and no wins. The parallels between “Sinners” and “The Color Purple” are striking. Both films are sweeping emotional stories with broad critical appeal and stark African American roots, accompanied by predominantly black ensembles. Yet, Spielberg’s film lost to the ’86 primary contender “Out of Africa” that swept the 58th Academy Awards.

Now, Coogler finds himself in a hauntingly similar position, facing a fierce competitive landscape in nearly all categories, which threatens to turn his potential historic victory into a devastating loss.

You can look no further than Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” (OBAA), the primary contender hailed as “the critics’ darling” receiving 502 nominations this year. Although its critical success does not match “Sinners” crowd-pleasing glory, the only thing that matters are the 10,000 Academy members and who they cast their ballot for.

While “Sinners” leads in nominations, a look at Kalshi, the only federally regulated prediction market platform, suggests the film could face a record-breaking Oscars shutout.

Kalshi is predicting a 55 percent probability that “Sinners” will lose at least 11 Academy Awards, a staggering figure that would tie it with Spielberg’s “The Color Purple” and 2021 film “The Power of the Dog” for the most losses in a single night. Nearly 30 percent of users are betting that the film will win only four of its 16 nominations. That is a significant prediction that demands a deeper dive into the statistics of each nomination and who “Sinners” competitors are.

Kalshi suggests that the safest bets for “Sinners” are the film’s creative pillars: Best Original Score and Best Original Screenplay, which are both currently trading at around a 95 percent win probability. The market is treating these as “shoo-ins,” nearly guaranteeing that Coogler and composer Ludwig Göransson won’t leave tonight’s ceremony empty-handed.

Beyond those locks, the film maintains a strong grip on the Academy Awards’ newest category: Best Achievement in Casting. The betting markets have “Sinners” at a 78 percent lead. An interesting upset could be possible also in the Best Cinematography category with “Sinners” only slightly behind OBAA at 46 percent.

Further into the night, Jordan’s momentum has pushed him ahead of Timothée Chalamet’s performance in “Marty Supreme.” Jordan leads as the favorite for Best Actor, maintaining a 53 percent Kalshi win prediction to Chalamet’s 36 percent.

Regardless, whether Coogler breaks the “Spielberg Curse” or sets a new record for the most snubs in a single night, the film’s status as a modern classic is already set. For an original epic having captured the cultural zeitgeist, the statistics are just a footnote.

Ultimately, the 98th Academy Awards is a battle between the populist force of Coogler’s “Sinners” and the critical momentum of Anderson’s “OBAA”. If the Kalshi prediction markets ring true, Sinners may become the most decorated “loser” in Academy history.

No matter the verdict, all bets are off.